Scotland's Shares; Mark Carney Warning

 

Scottish shares Down Again

Scottish based companies and banks suffered with their shares slipping for the second day running due to the uncertainty surrounding Scotland's independence referendum raising concerns, of a possible Yes vote.

The FTSE 100 was 5.7 points lower at 6,829, with Perth-based energy firm SSE and Royal Dutch Shell, both down 1.4%, among the main fallers.

The pound was just above 1.60 against the dollar after big losses on Monday. The pound was down on the euro, at 1.25.
Whitbread fell 0.18%, having risen sharply earlier after a trading update.

Supermarket chain Morrisons rose 3% after analysts at Citi placed a buy note on the stock amid hopes that the chain will preserve its dividend at half-year results on Thursday.

Other risers included Lloyds Banking Group, which recovered some of Monday's referendum-driven weakness to rise by 1.1p to 73.3p.

Investors were stepping aside until the outcome of the Scotland referendum on 18 September. Brokers are being cautious, and doing nothing with Scottish stock.

Mark Carney at the TUC Conference

Mark Carney the Bank of England addressing the TUC Conference said that a currency union in the event of Scottish independence would be "incompatible with sovereignty".

Mark Carney told the TUC conference that a currency required a centralised bank and shared banking regulations. Adding that common taxation and spending were also needed.

The Scottish National Party (SNP), wants to keep the pound in the event of independence, said that its plans had been "considered in detail" by the Fiscal Commission, a working group of the Scottish government.

An SNP spokesperson for Scottish finance minister John Swinney said: "Successful independent countries such as France, Germany, Finland and Austria all share a currency - and they are in charge of 100% of their tax revenues, as an independent Scotland would be. At present under devolution, Scotland controls only 7% of our revenues."

Well of course they do, France, Germany and Finland are all in the EU and use the Euro.
We didn’t need a working party to come to the conclusion that France, Germany, and Finland were in the euro zone. It just goes to show how well informed the SNP are on fiscal polices.

If Scotland does manage to join the EU they too will share the same currency as France, Germany and Finland. If that is what they want, the best of luck to them.
The Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats have all come out against a currency union with an independent Scotland.

The SNP spokesperson said that "the political position of the three Westminster parties... will of course change after a Yes vote."

"And as the momentum builds behind the Yes campaign, their currency bluff has well and truly been called," the spokesperson added.

Unproven currency

However, the pro-union "Better Together" campaign said that Mr Carney's comments "blew a hole in Alex Salmond's assertions that a separate Scotland could sign up to a currency union with the rest of the UK and still keep control over tax, spending and borrowing."

Alistair Darling, the leader of the campaign, said: "It would mean what would then be a foreign country having control over our economy. That's why a currency union would be bad for Scotland, as well as the rest of the UK."

Scotland would either have to "rush to adopt the euro" or "set up a separate unproven currency," he said.

Mr Darling added that uncertainty over the economy "puts jobs at risk."
"It means a weaker economy and less money to spend on our NHS," he said.

BBC economics editor Robert Peston said that the coalition parties and Labour feared that an independent Scotland in a currency union could "live dangerously beyond its means and borrow on a scale that degraded sterling".

He added: "There was no way that the Tories, Labour and LibDems could allow full budget-making freedom to Scotland even as part of the UK, because to do so would make their argument against monetary union with an independent Scotland look inconsistent and hypocritical.

Related Articles: Scotland's 3 Big problems"> : Scotland's NHS, info :Alex Salmond determind to use UK Pound : Scotlands Currency Debate : Scotlands Plan "B"Scotland Child Guardian Act : Scotland and the UK Pound: Scotland's Independence | The Cost : Will Scotland be better off Independent : Scotland's YES campaign gaining ground : UK and Scotlands Independence : Scotland's Independence Scottish Parties Conferences : Scottish Referendum Probabilities and Possibilities: Salmond chases Female vote: Scottish CBI Back 'NO' Vote : Billions of pounds will flow from Scotland with 'Yes' vote : Alex Salmond reckless Gamble with Scotland : Scottish Independence,is it viable? : Salmonds Dream Shattered | Blog | Scotland the Brave : Blog | Gordon Brown and Dream Team :Transport and an Independent Scotland : Scotlands Referendum

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3 Big Prolems with Scottish Independence

If Alex Salmond wins the Referendum for Scotland to become independent, it seems more than likely to finish his career in politics.

The 3 biggest problems about gaining independence are:

1. The Currency.
2. Joining the EU.
3. Scotland’s inability to borrow at reasonable rates.

1) The Currency

Salmond is still trying to convince the Scots that they will still use the GB pound and there will be no change. I don’t think there is another Scot in the world who believes that. The GB pound is printed with the words “Bank of England” and underneath this heading it says “I promise to pay the bearer the sum of xxx pounds” There is then the following statement ‘London for the Governor and Company of the Bank of England’ this is followed by the ‘signature of the Chief Cashier’

No mention of Scotland.

The Bank of England act as the Lender of Last Resort, which means it underwrites the UK borrowing, and the bank deposits of peoples savings. This is for the UK, not an independent country such as Scotland, France or any other country.

Because the UK has a powerful Lender of Last Resort, the UK government and UK banks can borrow at very low rates. The UK population have the reassurance that their money is safe in their bank, and that they can buy their homes on cheaper interest rates.

An independent Scotland will not have this. They know that they will have to pay a higher interest rate on their mortgages, credit cards and loans. They don’t know what currency they will use, and they don’t know who will be their Lender of Last resort will be.

The obvious course of action would be a new Scottish Currency, until such time as Scotland joins the EU.
Scotland will have to try and convince its trading partners that the new currency is backed up with something solid; otherwise the currency will be worthless outside of Scotland. Alex Salmond has said he will build up reserves from the oil revenue. That will take time, in the meantime cuts in public spending; increased taxation and higher interest will be the only course open to Scotland.

2) Joining the EU

On the date Scotland is declared Independent, it will leave the EU. Alex Salmond expects to successfully negotiate joining the EU on that date. If he is successful, Scotland will revert to using the Euro.
The chance of him negotiating entrance to the EU are slim. Several countries have indicated they will vote against entry.

If successful an independent Scotland will be able to borrow from the European Central Bank, the trouble is it could take several years to gain entry, and it is forecasted it will take several years to agree what assets are jointly owned by a smaller United Kingdom and the new evolved Scotland.

3) Scotland’s inability to borrow money.

Alex Salmond’s constant boast that he will default on Scotland’s debt to the UK has worried countries all over the world. If Scotland does manage to join the EU, every EU member will have to contribute to the ECB to lend Scotland money. If he is prepared to default on his countries debts to Great Britain, nobody will vote him into the EU, and have him defaulting on Scotland’s debt. Nobody will lend Scotland money knowing he is prepared to default on Scotland’s debt to the United Kingdom, which he has been a part of for 300 years.

As I said, if Alex Salmond wins the Referendum for Scotland to become independent, it seems more than likely to finish his career in politics.

Now you know why some financial institutions and companies are preparing to migrate south of the border, if Scotland gains independence.

According to the latest polls 50% on the Scottish people are prepared to vote ‘Yes’ , and take a leap in the deep unknown.
Read what the experts say:
Alex Salmond’s own former economic advisor, Professor John Kay, said: “The choice of currency would be the most important economic decision for an independent Scotland. All aspects of economic policy, including fiscal and
monetary arrangements, are contingent on that choice.”
Professor John Kay Former economic adviser to Alex Salmond & Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics said: If I represented the Scottish government in the extensive negotiations required by the creation of an independent state, I would try to secure a monetary union with England,and expect to fail … So Scotland might be driven towards theoption of an independent Scottish currency.“Alex Salmond has said I think rather stupidly that there is no plan B. The trouble with having no plan B is you don’t have any negotiating power if you don’t have a Plan B. So there hasto be a Plan B. And Plan B has to be an independent currency.”
Brian Quinn Former Executive Director of the Bank of England & Honorary Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Glasgow said: “The concept of a shared system of supervision and crisis management is seriously - perhaps fundamentally – flawed and that its weaknesses would increase during theindeterminate period of transition following independence.
This, together with the uncertainties regarding Scotland’scontinued use of sterling arising from its proposed membership of the EU, are likely to result in higher prudential requirements for Scottish financial institutions. In these circumstances it would not be surprising if they reconsidered their group structures and main domicile.”
As a consequence of the chance of a 'Yes' vote the GB Pound fell by 1.3$ against the US dollar, and 1% against the Euro.

Shares in Scottish-based firms suffered sharp falls on the stock market. Edinburgh-based Standard Life closed 2.43% lower on Monday, Royal Bank of Scotland slipped 1.3% and Lloyds Banking Group, which owns Bank of Scotland and Scottish Widows, dropped 2.43%.

Perth-based energy supplier SSE, Glasgow pumps specialist Weir Group and fund manager Aberdeen Asset Management also all fell between 1% and 2.25% over the course of the day.
Read what the Scottish Farmers say.

Related Articles: Scotland's NHS, info Alex Salmond determind to use UK Pound : Scotlands Currency Debate : Scotlands Plan "B"Scotland Child Guardian Act : Scotland and the UK Pound: Scotland's Independence | The Cost : Will Scotland be better off Independent : Scotland's YES campaign gaining ground : UK and Scotlands Independence : Scotland's Independence Scottish Parties Conferences : Scottish Referendum Probabilities and Possibilities: Salmond chases Female vote: Scottish CBI Back 'NO' Vote : Billions of pounds will flow from Scotland with 'Yes' vote : Alex Salmond reckless Gamble with Scotland : Scottish Independence,is it viable? : Salmonds Dream Shattered | Blog | Scotland the Brave : Blog | Gordon Brown and Dream Team :Transport and an Independent Scotland : Scotlands Referendum

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Alex Salmond unprepared for Independence

Know body from the SNP has approached The Bank of England about using the UK £.
It's a shocking revelation that the SNPs are so badly prepared for Independence that with the referendum days away, they haven't got an agreement on what currency an independent Scotland will use. Read the blog Scotland's Currency Debate

It looks as though Alex Salmond still expects the Scottish public to blindly follow him into Independence, without him revealing hard facts and the truth on all the key issues.

It is obvious that he intends to use the UK pound informally until such time as he negotiates entry to the EU, if he is able to do so. The biggest problem with this is that Scotland doesn't have a lender of last resort.

Last week, the First Minister refused to name his Plan B on currency in an STV debate with Alistair Darling . He repeatedly said that a separate Scotland would keep the pound, as part of a Euro style currency zone with the rest of the UK, despite everyone involved in the decision saying that this would not happen if we left the UK.

It really is time for him to stop playing about, and tell the Scottish public the truth about whether he has costed any plans properly, or whether he is going to leave it to see if he wins the vote, then start running round like a headless chicken trying to repair the damage he has done to Scotland and the people of Scotland, who are going to pay for his inability to come clean on his policies.

He will be relying on the UK to lend his government money, some chance! He might be able to go to the I.M.F. or the Euro Central Bank, but without proper policies and costings in place, why should they help? Why should the EU change the rules about entry just for him? And why should all the other countries in the EU vote for his Independent Scotland joining.

Running a country is like running a business, the only difference is the consequences are much greater, and they end up with the Scots paying for his inabilities.

Alex Salmond should have had all his plans costed and approved long before he announced his bid for Independence. You would have thought that he would have had more sense than to launch his idea of Independence, during one of the longest periods of depression and recession.



He talks the talk, but can’t walk the walk.

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Related Articles: Scotland's NHS, info Alex Salmond determind to use UK Pound : Scotlands Currency Debate : Scotlands Plan "B"Scotland Child Guardian Act : Scotland and the UK Pound: Scotland's Independence | The Cost : Will Scotland be better off Independent : Scotland's YES campaign gaining ground : UK and Scotlands Independence : Scotland's Independence Scottish Parties Conferences : Scottish Referendum Probabilities and Possibilities: Salmond chases Female vote: Scottish CBI Back 'NO' Vote : Billions of pounds will flow from Scotland with 'Yes' vote : Alex Salmond reckless Gamble with Scotland : Scottish Independence,is it viable? : Salmonds Dream Shattered | Blog | Scotland the Brave : Blog | Gordon Brown and Dream Team :Transport and an Independent Scotland : Scotlands Referendum

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Scotland's Independence Campaign Officially Started

Scotlands Independence Referendom Campaign Start

The campaign for Scotland’s Independence has officially commenced, with the media being obliged to be totally impartial.

The UK treasury has produced a set of figures which show that every person in Scotland will be £1,400 better off by staying in the UK, while the Scottish government has produce a conflicting set of figures showing that by 2029/30 every person will be £1,000 better off.

Although the figures are conflicting, they are taken over different time periods as the basis, then used for the projections. There is a link on the article page for the BBC Scotland Economics Correspondent, Colletta Smith’s break down of the figures.

Alex Salmond told the BBC that the ‘Yes’ campaign was gaining ground, he also said he had changed his style of campaigning after previous defeats in national elections.

He quoted “Since November, when we launched the White Paper, the average support in all opinion polls for "Yes" has gone from 37% to 45%."

In terms of the independence vote, the polls have been picking up that more women are undecided.

Alex Salmond has announced that junior ministers Shona Robison, who oversees equality and Angela Constance, who has the youth employment brief, would be made full Scottish cabinet members.

He added: "Subject to parliamentary approval, with these two outstanding ministers in the Scottish cabinet, we practice what we preach.

The two new ministers will be joining Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and Culture Secretary Fiona Hyslop at the cabinet table, making four women in total of Mr Salmond's 10 cabinet secretaries being women.

"The cabinet is our board as a country, and women will make up 40% of the members of the Scottish cabinet."

This is a direct response to Labour's Margaret Curran pledge for a 50% quota of women on public boards, and she also said that she wanted companies to be forced to publish pay differences between male and female workers.

The Scottish government also announced a women-only Scottish cabinet event to debate issues related to the independence referendum.

The Scottish Office

The Scottish Office put forward a compelling case for Scotland staying in the UK with 5 facts supporting the argument.

The SNP and the Liberal Democrats both held their conferences recently, while Alex Salmonde was still claiming that the UK had turned it’s back on Scotland, he now seems to be the only person to think that Scotland leaving the UK, is the same as the UK turning it's back on Scotland.

In short The Liberals and Danny Alexander put forward a passionate plea, where as Alex Salmonde carried on with his true blue Tory attitude of mud throwing.

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Related Articles: Scotland's YES campaign gaining ground : Scottish Parties Conferences : Scottish Referendum Probabilities and Possibilities: Salmond chases Female vote: Scottish CBI Back 'NO' Vote : Billions of pounds will flow from Scotland with 'Yes' vote : Alex Salmond reckless Gamble with Scotland : Scottish Independence,is it viable? : Salmonds Dream Shattered | Blog | Scotland the Brave : Blog | Gordon Brown and Dream Team :Transport and an Independent Scotland : Scotlands Referendum

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Scotlands Referendum could be NO vote

Scotland’s Independence vote is fast approaching, and the signs are that it could well be a ‘NO’ vote

An analysis by the UK Treasury revealed that an independent Scotland would have the second highest deficit among “advanced economies” in its first year.

The fiscal deficit of 5.5 per cent in 2016-17 would be equivalent to £9.5billion, or £1,760 for every man, woman and child in Scotland, the calculations suggest. The total would be about £1,000 more than the UK ¬deficit per head in the same year.

The prediction contradicts Scottish Government estimates of a deficit between 2.5 per cent and 3.2 per cent.

Earlier this week the National Institute for Economics and Social Research warned that an independent Scotland would immediately have to repay a £23billion first installment of its share of UK National Debt in its first year.

The £9.5billion, added to the £23billion totals £32.5billion – more than the Scottish Government’s annual budget.
Alex Salmond is still confident he will be able to use the British pound in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote, but that is only because he expects he won’t be able to use the Euro.
A recent survey covering England, Wales and Northern Ireland found that 53% of the public are opposed to Scotland using the British pound.

Only 18% of those polled believed that Alex Salmond had a plan ‘B’
BBC Scotland headed to Orkney to give voters a chance to quiz politicians and commentators at the heart of the debate on Scottish Independence on 18th September.

Sally Inkster, chief executive of Orkney Housing Association, asked: "A recent poll shows less than a third of women support independence. Does the panel have any theories on why this might be?"

"Could it be that less women want independence because they are the more intelligent sex?"

Caz Dodds on the issue of female voters.

"Wonder what Wilson and Carmichael would cut to pay for childcare reform under the Union?"

How the panel responded to Sally Inkster's question on support for independence among women

Alistair Carmichael: "I think that women are more drawn to arguments of the head rather than the heart."

Angela Constance: "Irrespective of whether you're a woman who stays at home to look after your children or whether you're a working mother, quite often you've got quite a lot on your plate as it is in terms of childcare."

Brian Wilson: "I think women are better at recognising bluff, bluster and bad patter."

Lesley Riddoch: "The utter game-changer that surely must come, whichever vote, 'Yes' or 'No', wins and whichever party wins the next election: we have to get childcare, affordable childcare as an absolute benchmark of society in Scotland because we're lagging so far behind."

Meanwhile in America former Nato secretary general Lord Robertson, addressing a meeting in Washington DC said that the “forces of darkness” would love to see the UK torn asunder, and pleaded with Scots to think long and hard about separation.

He told a Washington DC audience: “The loudest cheers for the break-up would be from our enemies. For the second military power in the West to shatter would be cataclysmic in geopolitical terms.

“If the United Kingdom was to find itself embroiled for several years in a torrid, complex, difficult and debilitating divorce, it would rob the West of a serious partner, just when solidity and cool nerves are going to be vital.”

The loudest cheers for the break-up would be from our enemies. For the second military power in the West to shatter would be cataclysmic in geopolitical terms.
Lord Robertson pleaded with other countries to speak out and added: “If people are worried about it, and I know they are, then I would hope that they would give the message that they would like the United Kingdom to stay together.”
He said Scottish Government plans to remove Trident nuclear submarines could make it “very difficult” for Nato to accept them as a member.

“They wouldn’t just be disarming an independent Scotland, they would effectively be disarming the remainder of the United Kingdom,” he said.

“I don’t think that would be viewed with any great satisfaction by those in the alliance who believe Britain’s nuclear deterrent is part and parcel of the West’s security.”

I have put up a Free blogging platform, to be used for your views on Scotland’s proposed Independence. All we ask is that you ‘Facebook Like’ the blogs, and ask your friends to do the same.

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Related Articles: Billions of pounds will flow from Scotland with 'Yes' vote : Alex Salmond reckless Gamble with Scotland : Scottish Independence,is it viable? : Salmonds Dream Shattered | Blog | Scotland the Brave : Blog | Gordon Brown and Dream Team :Transport and an Independent Scotland : Scotlands Referendum

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Alternative Plan for Scotland

The answer to Alex Salmond's reckless gamble.

In an interview Sir Menzes Campbell lays out a 7 point plan, if the Scottish people vote No to the referendum in September.
These leads on from his report on the substantial transfer of fiscal and constitutional powers to Holyrood.

• The 2015 Queen's Speech should include provisions to strengthen Scotland's powers.

• Political parties should commit to this in their UK election manifestoes.

• The UK government should look at all options to make the plans a reality.

• The Scottish government should make available its referendum research to inform the Campbell II proposals.

• The Scottish Parliament should ensure Scotland's new fiscal body can cope with further devolved financial powers after a referendum "No" vote.

• The Secretary of State for Scotland should convene a meeting within 30 days of a "No" vote to secure consensus for the devolution of more powers.

• Further devolution of tax powers should be made through a further Scotland Act
The Democrat Home Rule Commission, chaired by Sir Menzies, previously backed a substantial transfer of financial and constitutional power to Holyrood in a report in October 2012.
Watch the BBC video for George Brown, followed by Sir Menzies Campbell interview.
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Scottish Independence Pros and cons.

Alex Salmonde has a grand plan to turn Scotland into an independent nation, but unfortunately for the Scots and Scottish businesses, his grand plan isn’t a grand plan, just an idea built on his dream, with no clear indication how it will work.

Alex Salmonde wants to make Scotland Independent and, still use the British Pound, and then he wants to join the EU.

It is these two fundamental principles that he wants to build a new Scottish nation. It is these two fundamental pillars that will support a new Scotland, but both these fundamental pillars will be denied to him.

Lets take the First Pillar, using the British Pound as part of a Stirling area.

Mark Carney of the Bank of England said, “Opting to be independent within a successful currency union would represent a very constrained form of independence. A Scottish government would have far less ability to tax and spend as it chose, than if it had its own currency.”

It would appear that it is possible to use the British Pound, but not desirable. It would mean that the UK would have to bail out Scotland in the event of a crises. The British Government have decided this would not be the best course for the rest of the UK, and have told Alex Salmond that he can’t use the British Pound.

The second pillar, joining the EU.

Alex Salmond is under the impression that this would be a forgone conclusion, as he says, Scotland is a rich nation, and he assumes that all 38 states would want him in. Unfortunately working on assumptions that all 38 countries would welcome Scotland because they are rich isn’t a sound foundation on which to build a new nation.
There is every expectation that Spain will block Scotland’s application to join the EU.

If Scotland does find itself outside the EU on the day independence is declared, there has long been a fear that Spain, opposed to separatist movements in Catalonia and the Basque Country, will be unsympathetic and could veto Scotland’s EU membership bid.

And sources have told Channel 4 News’s Political Editor Gary Gibbon that Mr Barroso thinks it’s not just Spain who might block entry for Scotland: Germany and Belgium have misgivings too.
Alex Salmonds problems don’t stop here.

There is an EU directive that banks Head Offices should be in the country they do most business in. [That’s putting it very simply]

Lloyds, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Bank of Scotland would all have to relocate their Head Office in the UK.

Gerry Grimstone, Chairman of Standard Life says Scotland has been a great base for the company but that, "if anything were to threaten this, we will take whatever action we consider necessary - including transferring parts of our operations from Scotland - in order to ensure continuity and to protect the interests of our stakeholders"."This is a precautionary measure to ensure continuity of our businesses' competitive position and to protect the interests of our stakeholders."

Shell and BP are also considering their position, while the airlines are all for a yes vote, because they suspect the Scottish government will abolish air passenger duty.

With so much uncertainty surrounding the gaps in Alex Salmonds plans, it is making business large and small nervous and apprehensive. The Scottish public are the ones to decide the fate of Scotland, one wonders if they will be given all the facts, or just told about possible tax cuts. We will have to wait and see.

With big business considering re-location into the UK, Alex Salmond will have to recalculate the amount of lost income and jobs from theses companies, in order that the Scots can re-evaluate the impact on services, tax etc,etc.

If it all goes wrong, at least the Scots know they will be welcome in the UK.

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Money no Object for Floods

Money no Object

David Cameron said in his speech which will haunt him for a long time, that “Money is no Object” to support the clean up campaign. Each household will be eligible for payments up to £5,000 to support the clean- up operation. Money is no object, because the UK is a rich nation, said Cameron.

Cameron said the Government were taking decisive action across the board. About 6,500 homes have been affected by flooding since December, and the prime minister has said "money is no object" to support the clean-up operation.
The government's Repair and Renewal Grants of up to £5,000 will be open to all homeowners and businesses affected by flooding between 1 December last year and the end of next month.

They will not cover the damage or losses already suffered.

Claimants will be eligible for payments of up to £5,000, to help cover future protection for properties. Work will begin after a survey has been completed by "a competent professional."

Cameron said "We are helping people who need help now and protecting communities who need protecting in the future." By that I think he means the 3 month period when people who have suffered, will not have to pay council tax.
The scheme will be run and funded by local councils, who will expect to be reimbursed by the government in the future.

Details of the £10m fund for farmers to help restore their waterlogged land, has not been announced yet. Presumably if the government leave it long enough, the land will have been restored naturally.

If the total number of properties affected by the flood stays at the level of 6,500, and the government doesn’t go back on its word, it will cost the government just £32.5m sometime in the future.

If you are of the opinion of the majority, that the floods wouldn’t have been as bad had the government not cut the Environment Agency Budget by £100m, you may also consider that we aren’t the rich nation Cameron says we are, but at least we have a caring government, that is if you believe what the coalition said when they came to power.

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Slow start to 2014.

Although the UK has started to show growth, all be it not across all sectors, the rest of Europe is lagging behind.

Caution is still the watchword.

At RFT Express we have one company where we would expect to see 150,000 garments in the warehouse, they are just dipping their toe in the market with a mere 300 men’s suits in the 2014 range coming in.

RFT are just receiving bookings for the N.E.C. Moda and Beta exhibitions in mid February. These are from companies who have missed the last couple of years from showing at this venue. Normally these exhibitions are filled months before, which just prove how bad take-up of units in these exhibitions has been, and still is.

High end Fashion News

The top end high fashion has done very well during the last 5 years, and yet according to Pambianco, Prada shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange have fallen 30% to 22 Hong Kong dollars.

They also report that according to an unnamed source Avon France is to enter receivership.

Meanwhile Argentina is to bring in new taxation to curb online sales from outside of Argentina.

Light at end of tunnel

Back in the UK and we could be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, but I still think caution is the word for 2014. For those companies who have struggled on through the recessions, 2013 was probably the hardest for most companies.

A lot of companies could tell we were coming out of the downturn created by the austerity plan, but with austerity expected to go on for another generation, it seemed to be that companies decided not to follow the coalition lead of cuts, but rather to create prosperity and growth instead.

We are still struggling with red tape in the UK, take a quick look at the amount of red tape involved in applying for an operator’s license to put a trailer on a transit van, in order to reduce delivery costs.

The UK is going through a dificult time, with David Camaron's proposed 'in-out referendum' on the EU, and the possibility of Scotland leaving Great Britain, both creating instabiity in cvompany planning.

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p.s.
If you are stuck for something to buy your loved one this spring, Louis Vuitton is launching a new range of handbags, starting at 40,000 dollars. The dearest being a black crocodile leather handbag with a goatskin lining for a mere 48,000 dollars.

2013 Probably the hardest year since 2008

For those companies who have struggled on through the recessions, 2013 was probably the hardest for most companies.

A lot of companies could tell we were coming out of the downturn created by the austerity plan, but with austerity expected to go on for another generation, it seemed to be that companies decided not to follow the coalition lead of cuts, but rather to create prosperity and growth instead.

This took power away from the coalition, and gave it back to businesses, and for the first time in a good few years I would expect to see high street spending to hit record levels. Those companies who have struggled over the last 5 years will be borrowing to finance growth.

There is a general feeling from the general public that they are getting fed up of austerity, with people leaving companies who have imposed large pay cuts and no pay rises for the last 5 years. People who showed loyalty to their companies, have seen their colleagues with 10 to 20 years loyal service are now leaving for pastures new.

Outlook for Growth

It certainly looks as though 2014 will show growth, and unemployment coming down. I have the feeling that most people will feel there is a light at the end of the tunnel at last. Confidence will grow in 2014 in all sectors, and a lot of companies will come out of hibernation in 2014.

There will be a lot more investment during 2014, the government have pushed for the banks to give cheaper loans, and complained when there was a poor take up. This wasn’t necessarily the banks fault; it was more caution on the part of companies to borrow when there was no confidence in austerity working for anybody.

The UK had its credit rating down graded and Osborne said it was a good sign. The coalition have always said that we had low rates of interest due to their austerity plan, when in actual fact it was the Bank of England guaranteeing the governments borrowing which kept interest rates low.

There is still uncertainty about the current economical and political climate over the next few years. We have the possibility of Cameron’s promise to negotiate with the EU, and what ever the outcome of the negotiations, there is still the promise of a referendum.

Which way the electorate vote is undecided, what is certain if we come out of the EU we will all suffer. Cameron and Osborne both blamed low sales to the EU for the double dip recession, if we come out of the EU, trading with the EU will become more difficult and more expensive. The UK’s loss of its triple ‘A’ rating was a wakeup call for the coalition but unfortunately they were still sleeping and dreaming of better times.

Couple that with the possible break up of the UK, if Scotland goes down the route of independence, we will have so much uncertainty, and a lot of companies will be reluctant to expand.
The government have complained about the banks paying high salaries for poor staff performances, the Government have now decided it is time that they should have higher salaries for their poor performances.

Red tape is still holding a lot of SMBs from starting up or expanding. I wrote two articles on applying for a HGV Operators License, and for Transport Managers certificate of professional competence. This page gives you all the extra information you need.

Fashion has continued to show growth in the high end of the market. Mid priced fashion took a hammering, although we do have one exception to that with the Bonmarche revival.

RFT Express News

RFT Express are releasing new warehousing in late January 2014, with initially space for 300,000 hanging garments, and the second phase expected to take in another 300.000 with capacity to double this if needed.

Situated in Yorkshire we are the same distance from London as we are from Edinburgh, Glasgow and Cardiff. Being near to the M62, puts us equal distance from Liverpool and Hull/ Immingham with access to ferries to both Ireland and Europe.

RFT are in the enviable position of being able to multi-drop to stores over the UK, as well as same day distance runs, due to our geographical location.

I was in a buoyant mood when I started writing this article, but although I expect an upturn in businesses during 2014, I also think caution for most companies is probably going to be the underlying theme during 2014. I also expect SMBs to lead any growth we see in 2014.



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Vic Farron RFT Express.
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